Video: RNC Day Three: Themed 'We Can Change It'

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Source: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/cnbc/48829812/

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iPhone 5 Will Not Have NFC - Business Insider

Summary

Apple Inc. is an American multinational corporation that designs and markets consumer electronics, computer software, and personal computers. The company's best-known hardware products include the Macintosh line of computers... More ?

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-5-will-not-have-nfc-2012-8

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Model shows dramatic global decline in ratio of workers to retired people

Public release date: 20-Aug-2012
[ | E-mail | Share ]

Contact: Molly McElroy
mollywmc@uw.edu
206-543-2580
University of Washington

A new statistical model predicts that by 2100 the number of people older than 85 worldwide will increase more than previously estimated, and there will be fewer working-age adults to support them than previously expected.

The findings, reported by researchers at the University of Washington and the United Nations, suggest an even greater decrease in the coming decades in support for social security programs for elderly adults.

Lead author Adrian Raftery, UW professor of statistics and sociology, was surprised by how dramatically the proportion of the world's "oldest old" will increase by the end of the century.

"This has been studied a lot in developed countries, but what we see with this model is that the increase in people over 85 will be a worldwide phenomenon," he said.

The study will be published Aug. 20 in the online early edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

In China, the world's most-populous country, the number of working-age adults for each person 65 or older will shrink from 7.9 in 2010 to 1.6 in 2100. The ratio in India, the world's second-most-populous country, will decrease from 11.1 in 2010 to 2.0 in 2100.

The United States' ratio declines from 4.6 in 2010 to 1.8 by the end of the century. Other developed nations with low fertility rates show somewhat larger declines, including the Netherlands dropping from 4.0 to 1.6 and the United Kingdom dropping from 3.6 to 1.6 by century's end.

"The United States has more favorable numbers than other developed countries now, and will retain a slight advantage over other countries at the end of the century," Raftery said. He attributes the United States' relatively more-promising outlook to the country's higher levels of new births and to immigration.

The researchers did not produce population predictions for the 38 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, because those nations require a different statistical method.

Standard population projection methods yield just one estimate without giving a sense of wiggle room. In contrast, Raftery and his co-authors developed a Bayesian statistical approach that produces a low and high estimate for each country's population as well as the likelihood that the actual population will fall in that range. The method makes population predictions based on countries' previous fertility and mortality rates and immigration patterns.

This probabilistic strategy allows policy-makers to make better-informed decisions, such as determining whether to build new schools.

"We don't know for sure what will happen in the future, but this model gives us a better sense of the accuracy of the projections," Raftery said.

Raftery hopes to use the model to help the United Nations make its 2012 prediction of world population growth, which will be released in February 2013.

Previously, he used a similar statistical model with the United Nations' 2010 population prediction. That model projected a world population of 10.1 billion by 2100, which is 1 billion more than previously thought.

###

Hana ev?kov of UW's Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences is a co-author of the paper. Other co-authors are Nan Li, Patrick Gerland and Gerhard Heilig of the population division in the United Nations' Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

A grant from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development funded the work.

For more information, contact Raftery at raftery@uw.edu or 206-543-4505.

---

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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Public release date: 20-Aug-2012
[ | E-mail | Share ]

Contact: Molly McElroy
mollywmc@uw.edu
206-543-2580
University of Washington

A new statistical model predicts that by 2100 the number of people older than 85 worldwide will increase more than previously estimated, and there will be fewer working-age adults to support them than previously expected.

The findings, reported by researchers at the University of Washington and the United Nations, suggest an even greater decrease in the coming decades in support for social security programs for elderly adults.

Lead author Adrian Raftery, UW professor of statistics and sociology, was surprised by how dramatically the proportion of the world's "oldest old" will increase by the end of the century.

"This has been studied a lot in developed countries, but what we see with this model is that the increase in people over 85 will be a worldwide phenomenon," he said.

The study will be published Aug. 20 in the online early edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

In China, the world's most-populous country, the number of working-age adults for each person 65 or older will shrink from 7.9 in 2010 to 1.6 in 2100. The ratio in India, the world's second-most-populous country, will decrease from 11.1 in 2010 to 2.0 in 2100.

The United States' ratio declines from 4.6 in 2010 to 1.8 by the end of the century. Other developed nations with low fertility rates show somewhat larger declines, including the Netherlands dropping from 4.0 to 1.6 and the United Kingdom dropping from 3.6 to 1.6 by century's end.

"The United States has more favorable numbers than other developed countries now, and will retain a slight advantage over other countries at the end of the century," Raftery said. He attributes the United States' relatively more-promising outlook to the country's higher levels of new births and to immigration.

The researchers did not produce population predictions for the 38 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, because those nations require a different statistical method.

Standard population projection methods yield just one estimate without giving a sense of wiggle room. In contrast, Raftery and his co-authors developed a Bayesian statistical approach that produces a low and high estimate for each country's population as well as the likelihood that the actual population will fall in that range. The method makes population predictions based on countries' previous fertility and mortality rates and immigration patterns.

This probabilistic strategy allows policy-makers to make better-informed decisions, such as determining whether to build new schools.

"We don't know for sure what will happen in the future, but this model gives us a better sense of the accuracy of the projections," Raftery said.

Raftery hopes to use the model to help the United Nations make its 2012 prediction of world population growth, which will be released in February 2013.

Previously, he used a similar statistical model with the United Nations' 2010 population prediction. That model projected a world population of 10.1 billion by 2100, which is 1 billion more than previously thought.

###

Hana ev?kov of UW's Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences is a co-author of the paper. Other co-authors are Nan Li, Patrick Gerland and Gerhard Heilig of the population division in the United Nations' Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

A grant from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development funded the work.

For more information, contact Raftery at raftery@uw.edu or 206-543-4505.

---

[ | E-mail | Share ]

?

AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-08/uow-msd081612.php

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Your Online Business And Website Design ? Putting It At The Same ...

Our ISP has notified us that we're killing their database servers with around 75,000 SQL queries per... however long their check period is.

We are taking steps to rectify this situation and will be back online as soon as possible.

Thanks for your patience.

Source: http://www.twenty4seven365.com/2012/08/20/your-online-business-and-website-design-putting-it-at-the-same-time/

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The nation's weather

Weather Underground Forecast for Thursday, August 16, 2012.

Wet and unsettled weather conditions will continue in the Midwest as a cold front with waves of low pressure push through the region. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated near the system as it progresses eastward, from the Upper Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Parts of the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Ozarks are at slight risk of damaging wind and severe hail from the mid-afternoon through mid-evening. Temperatures in the Lower 48 states Wednesday have ranged from a morning low of 32 degrees at West Yellowstone, Mont. to a high of 102 degrees at Pecos, Texas

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/nations-weather-094902441.html

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Geno Auriemma On 2016 Rio Olympics: 'I Would Say It Is Somebody Else's Turn' To Coach

STORRS, Conn. -- Connecticut coach Geno Auriemma said he has no interest in returning as head coach of the U.S. national team for the 2016 Rio Olympics.

Auriemma met with reporters at UConn, five days after coaching the U.S. team to a fifth straight Olympic gold medal.

He said he was honored to get the job and ecstatic with the results, but described his interest level in doing it again as "zero."

"If you ask me right now, today, I would say it is somebody else's turn," he said.

Mike Krzyzewski returned as coach of the men's team after the 2008 Games to lead them to another gold medal in London, but the USA has traditionally switched women's basketball coaches after each Olympics.

Tara VanDerveer, Nell Fortner, Van Chancellor and Anne Donovan each led teams to Olympic gold before Auriemma took the job as national coach in 2009.

USA Basketball spokeswoman Caroline Williams said it is too soon for the organization to begin thinking about the coach of the 2016 team.

"USA Basketball generally doesn't even begin the process until at least the winter after the Olympics," she said in an email. "We still have many competitions this year and the next major competition for our USA National Team isn't until 2014, so the coaching staff for the next squad hasn't even come up for discussion yet."

Auriemma said he believes it will be more difficult for the women to win in 2016. Other countries such as France and Turkey are making great strides with their programs, and some key players for the U.S. are aging, he said.

"Do you see any other Sue Birds and Diana Taurasi's and Tamika Catchings out there?" he said. "I don't. I think we're going to have to work harder than we've ever worked to stay where we are."

Auriemma, who has led UConn to seven national titles, said coaching the Olympics was the most pressure he has ever felt.

The U.S. team faced its first halftime deficit in the Olympics in 12 years before pulling away to beat Australia 86-73 in the semifinal game.

France stayed with the U.S. in the first 12 minutes of the final before Candace Parker scored 21 points, including eight straight in the second quarter, to help the U.S. win the gold, 86-50.

Auriemma said he would like to concentrate on coaching his Huskies, who he said could be very "special" over the next two seasons. UConn returns almost everyone from a 33-5 team that lost in the national semifinals and brings in another top-rated recruiting class.

As to whether he would ever consider returning to USA Basketball, Auriemma compared the experience to eating a bowl of his favorite mint-chocolate chip ice cream.

"The second bowl doesn't taste as good as the first one," he said. "It never has and it never will."

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Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/16/geno-auriemma-2016-rio-olympics-not-interested_n_1791153.html

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